Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 44.331170 48.862130 53.938323 60.106279 67.481304 76.127044 87.200000
2025-02-23 38.340410 44.588202 52.250928 62.598402 76.648252 95.807695 125.451971
2025-03-02 33.707597 40.404795 49.061976 61.539188 79.971424 108.020279 158.665568
2025-03-09 30.304809 37.091559 46.194375 59.953275 81.639049 117.749332 192.762412
2025-03-16 27.126882 33.636508 42.573530 56.505466 79.442077 120.150715 214.352535
2025-03-23 25.837874 32.583500 42.132336 57.649868 84.796468 137.705552 283.403339
2025-03-30 24.250394 30.937173 40.605525 56.787806 86.389620 148.433201 347.030183
2025-04-06 22.934516 29.557604 39.315782 56.090365 88.077606 160.047940 431.193580
2025-04-13 21.336849 27.646034 37.034747 53.407111 85.346563 160.165357 472.054714
2025-04-20 20.969254 27.524004 37.518092 55.577078 92.912341 190.327518 743.924606
2025-04-27 20.374852 27.008694 37.313965 56.462350 97.961507 216.860109 1159.739714
2025-05-04 20.149069 27.036003 37.985963 59.067516 107.686451 266.760302 2691.596411
2025-05-11 19.487544 26.438920 37.729768 60.205278 115.289914 323.047411 12007.389867
2025-05-18 19.024062 26.147328 38.014315 62.615989 127.767964 428.690938 NaN
2025-05-25 18.110990 25.052836 36.764864 61.553314 129.950891 485.948042 NaN
2025-06-01 17.220620 23.935894 35.373903 59.966725 130.029723 533.070806 NaN
2025-06-08 16.164457 22.485778 33.269811 56.517700 123.108770 512.986871 NaN
2025-06-15 15.788001 22.148862 33.185054 57.662499 132.086951 669.169245 NaN
2025-06-22 15.197077 21.414067 32.296432 56.800137 133.780583 765.268621 NaN
2025-06-29 14.672140 20.763612 31.519133 56.102455 135.931829 890.606750 NaN
2025-07-06 13.956795 19.754830 29.995953 53.418291 129.584809 854.214883 NaN
2025-07-13 13.831856 19.756218 30.414452 55.588992 143.727706 1365.713655 NaN
2025-07-20 13.573271 19.509541 30.327624 56.474569 153.195683 2070.718732 NaN